Fuel taxation

In the autumn of 2000, increases in the price of petrol led to fuel protests across Britain. It was argued that high levels of indirect taxation on fuel, which had risen rapidly in each year from 1993 to 1999 (the "escalator", which saw duties on fuel increase by 3 percentage points above inflation between 1993 and 1997, and 6 points between 1997 and 1999), had provoked the protests. Since abandoning the escalator in the 1999 Pre-Budget Report, the Chancellor has not increased fuel duties above inflation in any Budget. As has become customary in recent years, it was announced in the 2005 Budget that the planned increase in duties in line with inflation that would normally come in from April 2005 had been postponed until September, when it would be reviewed in the light of oil prices. Despite the escalator being abandoned, petrol prices have risen once again and the threat of renewed protest has been debated. This Briefing Note updates earlier work (see asterisked footnote below) from the time of the last petrol crisis and considers the extent to which recent increases in prices can be attributed to government policy. It also considers whether there is a case for duties to be changed as a direct result of pump price changes, and examines evidence on the effects of fuel duty changes on different groups of the population

An analysis of consumer panel data

In terms of collecting comprehensive panel expenditure data, there are trade-offs to be made in terms of the demands imposed on respondents and the level of detail and spending coverage collected. Existing comprehensive spending data tends to be cross-sectional whilst panel studies include only limited expenditure questions that record spending only as broad aggregates. More recently, economists have begun to use spending information collected by market research companies that records very detailed spending down to the barcode level from a panel of households, usually recorded by in-home barcode scanners, which may provide considerable advantages over existing data more commonly used in social sciences. However, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of this kind of data collection method and the potential implications of survey mode on the recorded data. This paper seeks to address this, by an in-depth examination of scanner data from one company, Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS), on grocery purchases over a five-year period. We assess how far the ongoing demands of participation inherent in this kind of survey lead to 'fatigue' in respondents' recording of their spending and compare the demographic representativeness of the data to the well-established Expenditure and Food Survey (EFS), constructing weights for the TNS that account for observed demographic differences. We also look at demographic transitions, comparing the panel aspect of the TNS to the British Household Panel Study (BHPS). We examine in detail the expenditure data in the TNS and EFS surveys and discuss the implications of this method of data collection for survey attrition. Broadly, we suggest that problems of fatigue and attrition may not be so severe as may be expected, though there are some differences in expenditure levels (and to some extent patterns of spending) that cannot be attributed to demographic or time differences in the two surveys alone and may be suggestive of survey mode effects. Demographic transitions appear to occur less frequently than we might expect which may limit the usefulness of the panel aspect of the data for some applications

The 'fat tax': economic incentives to reduce obesity

This Briefing Note looks at the potential for the introduction of a "fat tax" into the UK in an effort to reduce the growing prevalence of obesity in Britain. There are different forms such a tax could take. One possibility is to tax the nutrient contents of foods such that those containing more fat or salt, for example, are taxed more heavily. Alternatively, particular types of foods, such as snacks or soft drinks, could be subject to a tax, or VAT could be extended to foods that are currently zero-rated but have a high fat content. Revenue from a "fat tax" could be used in various ways, such as financing subsidies for healthy foods or exercise equipment, funding advertising campaigns for healthy eating or in schools. Alternatively, it could form part of general government receipts. This Briefing Note will look at trends in UK obesity (Section 2) and examine evidence on eating habits and exercise in order to see whether trends here can account for what we see happening to obesity (Section 3). We will then go on, in Section 4, to review some of the key economic reasons behind why we might be concerned about obesity and why we might consider there to be a case for government intervention. Moving on, we discuss how food is currently taxed (Section 5) and the various ways in which a "fat tax" might be introduced (Section 6), looking at particular issues the government might need to address should it wish to introduce one. We will finish in Section 7 by presenting some simple analysis of a hypothetical "fat tax" in terms of how it might impact differently on the rich and the poor. Section 8 concludes

Consumption trends in the UK, 1975-99

How and why has the way in which the average British family spends its money changed over the past 25 years? Those are the key questions examined in this report, using data from the UK FES between 1975 and 1999. It looks not only at broad changes in total spending, but also at how the division of expenditure between basics and non-basics and between durable goods, non-durable goods and services has altered over time

London's congestion charge

On 17 February 2003, one of the world's largest and most ambitious plans to tackle urban congestion began, with the introduction of a congestion charge for central London. It is hoped that this £5 daily charge for many vehicles entering the Inner Ring Road charging zone will significantly reduce the level of congestion faced by those travelling into and out of central London both by private and by public transport. In 2001, almost 1.1 million people entered central London during the morning peak hours of 7.00a.m.-10.00a.m.,1 of whom around 150,000 (13.7%) used private transport. Whilst the total number of people entering during the morning rush hour has scarcely changed since 1991, there has been a small shift towards public transport: in 1991, 16.8% of people used private transport. Nevertheless, average traffic speeds in central London have fallen slightly over the last decade, with the average morning peak-period traffic speed for 2000-03 just 9.9 mph, compared with a peak of 14.2 mph in 1974-76. During the evening rush hour, average speeds are even slower, at just 9.6 mph. In evidence to the House of Commons Transport Committee,3 David Begg of the Commission for Integrated Transport argues that around 40% of the total national level of congestion occurs in Greater London. Transport for London suggests that "there are now no longer any "peaks" or "off-peaks" of traffic volume between 7am - 6.30pm" and states that there are now on average three minutes of delay for every mile that a vehicle travels inside the charging zone. This Briefing Note aims to provide a guide to the workings of the London congestion charge. We begin in Section 2 by describing the economic case for congestion charging, showing why congestion can be thought of as an urban example of the well-known overuse of common resources to which there is free access (the so-called "tragedy of the commons"). In Section 3, we move on to look at the details of the proposed charge for London, examining how it fits in with the economic framework we develop and discussing some of the work that has already been carried out to try to predict the likely effects of the charge. Section 4 looks briefly at the issue of what may happen with the projected net revenues from the charge, which are legally bound for the first 10 years to be spent on transport within Greater London. In Section 5, we discuss some of the empirical evidence regarding transport in London and present evidence on the potential distributional effects of the congestion charge, since one of the oft-cited criticisms of charging is that it will impact upon the poorest most severely. Section 6 goes on to look at the experience of congestion charging elsewhere around the world

The expenditure experience of older households

This commentary examines detailed trends in expenditure patterns between 1995 and 2007, with a particular focus on the pensioner population. Pensioners are not a homogeneous group, but differ widely in both their levels and patterns of spending, and so we look not just at pensioners as a whole but also at pensioners according to age, income, household composition and so on. Spending may tell us something about household welfare that other, often-used measures like incomes do not. In particular, it may be that spending is informative about long-run well-being whereas income is more about current, short-run living standards. Using data from the Family Expenditure Survey/Expenditure and Food Survey, an annual, cross-sectional study of the spending patterns of 6,000-7,000 households, we look in depth at changes in the level of real expenditures and how spending patterns have changed over time. Then, using data from two waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we examine household fuel expenditures in detail. Fuel is clearly of great current policy concern given recent large increases in the price of domestic fuel that may impact particularly severely on poorer and older households

The inflation experience of older households

Recent increases in inflation have been accompanied by concerns over the extent to which official figures match the 'true' household experience of inflation. Rapid increases in the prices of household fuel, petrol and diesel and, more recently, of food have brought considerable attention to the fact that inflation will be different for different households according to their expenditure patterns. Any measure of inflation, such as the Retail Prices Index (RPI) or Consumer Prices Index (CPI), is necessarily only an average of the experience of different households and may not be especially representative of what is happening for any household in particular. Using data from the Expenditure and Food Survey, this Commentary looks at the inflation experience (based on the RPI) for different groups of households, examining how the average inflation rate they face has varied over time and making comparisons across the groups, focusing in particular on pensioner households

Parental income and children’s smoking behaviour: evidence from the british household panel survey

Does money matter? When investigating health behaviour, research often finds a strong positive association between income and healthy behaviour. This could however be due to individual characteristics that determine both income and health investment and is not necessarily due to the role of money per se. In this study we look at this relationship over the generations by studying the association between parental income and children’s prevalence to smoke in Britain using data from the British Household Panel Survey and British Youth Survey. We find an inverse relation between parental income and children’s smoking prevalence, but when looking at within household changes by comparing sibling’s smoking status differences at the same age, we find instead a positive effect. This indicates that within household increases in income lead to an increased probability of smoking of a younger child

Consumer shopping behavior: how much do consumers save?

This paper documents the potential and actual savings that consumers realize from four particular types of purchasing behavior: purchasing on sale; buying in bulk (at a lower per unit price); buying generic brands; and choosing outlets. How much can and do households save through each of these behaviors? How do these patterns vary with consumer demographics? We use data collected by a marketing firm on all food purchases brought into the home for a large, nationally representative sample of U.K. households in 2006. We are interested in how consumer choice affects the measurement of price changes. In particular, a standard price index based on a fixed basket of goods will overstate the rise in the true cost of living because it does not properly consider sales and bulk purchasing. According to our measures, the extent of this bias might be of the same or even greater magnitude than the better-known substitution and outlet biases

Booms and busts: consumption, house prices and expectations

Over much of the past 25 years, the cycles of house price and consumption growth have been closely synchronised. Three main hypotheses for this co-movement have been proposed in the literature. First, that an increase in house prices raises households’ wealth, particularly for those in a position to trade down the housing ladder, which increases their desired level of expenditure. Second, that house price growth increases the collateral available to homeowners, reducing credit constraints and thereby facilitating higher consumption. And third, that house prices and consumption have tended to be influenced by common factors. This paper finds that the relationship between house prices and consumption is stronger for younger than older households, which appears to contradict the wealth channel. These findings therefore suggest that common causality has been the most important factor behind the link between house price and consumption